The Tree Of Liberty Must Be Refreshed From Time To Time With The Blood Of Patriots And Tyrants.
It Is Its Natural Manure.
Thomas Jefferson, 1787.
Iran and America are going through a tit for tat strategy while Israelis are just sitting on the side watching.
The question is why won't they get involved in this tit for tat game?
Obviously if their entrance would make a change in favor of U.S and its allies they would certainly come to help their partners.
Besides, they have tasted Iranians missiles, a vast variety of them, and they didn't like it so much that they are not willing to order them again =)) but who knows, maybe they ask for it again sometimes in the future.
alright.
this new war has reached a point where serious concerns are brought up that if it's not put out very soon it can get escalated to a full scale war which is only Israel's desire. no one in the region nor in the world is willing to see such an escalation. therefor, I don't think it's gonna keep going on for a long time like this.
the U.S was neither ready to go to war with Iran nor to escalate it now, though it is under high pressure from Israel not to back off. therefor, it is highly likely that they put an end to it and go back to the diplomacy table. however, the stupidity that brought them to this war from the start is still running in their vein, which is the most dangerous factor and it seems to be the king, the real decision maker.
I prefer beauties to be discovered rather than displayed.
just like other skills writing is susceptible of decline when you are forced to stop. one of our war's effects imposed on blogsphere
beside the skill another thing that it hurts is spirit of writing which is of greater importance to me
still not up and about...
so far America and its allies were not successful at regime change in Iran, as their primary goal that was highly reliant on uprisings.
the first question is, are they using their full power? they do not explicitly tell us, never. the thing we can do is to analyze what's happening to come up with an answer.
lets say No to the question and they are NOT using their full power. in that case they must be those who are EASILY controlling the Strait of Hormuz. but are they? some may say yes some say no. lets say yes. so when America and its allies have control of the Strait of Hormuz the flow of oil from Gulf countries toward the world SHOULD make oil price stable. but is it stable? NO the oil price has risen sharply. therefor they have not their hands on the Strait of Hormuz.
while they have lost the control of energy price all around the world why they are not using their full power to get back the Strait of Hormuz under control? there is no answer for that!
now we can say America and its allies are using their full power but were not successful so far which I hope they won't be.
the second question is are its allies gonna ACTIVELY join the war?
the crucial fact you need to understand is that America's allies are not its FRIENDS! the best thing that defines them is that: they are Americas fair weather friends. which means they pretend to be friend and shake hands but just inside their INTERESTS boundaries. you can see this fact by their voice taking one side at a day, like a ping pong ball. during first days they were saying: we support America. after they saw how powerful Iran was and the war was not gonna end soon or go on to their favor they changed their attitude saying: we condemn America's acts against Iran. and now again there are rumors about them taking America's side again.
now we can answer the question. you are guessing correctly, it depends on how they see the war and post-war situations according to their INTERESTS.
beside their interests, I wanna add two more criteria which certainly impact their decision.
1. if Iran wins the war it means Russia wins the war and all the Western countries lose. after that, they see themselves subjected to Russia. their decades-long phobia becomes true. the phobia that is real reason behind stringing along Ukraine war. therefor they cannot stand by and watch Iran wins the war.
2. if the war goes on for more than two, three months they are likely to deplete their energy depositories especially liquid petroleum gas, LPG, which badly affects electricity production for both their industries and homes. it causes inflation rate to sky rocket like they have never seen in decades. just thinking about such a situation is enough for their leaders to stop the war either by putting America under great pressure or joining the war to push back Iran. so far they have tried the first, I mean putting America under pressure, but did it slightly. they should know it's not been enough by now.
my view? I thing Europeans will double down on their policy and put greater pressure on America to stop the war. but as their INTERESTS mandate, they will go to a great length just to stop the war by any means. so if America does not bow to its allies pressure, its allies will join the war against Iran. which I consider as a true act of crossing the Rubicon toward World War 3.
میگه: برای من که اهمیت نداره. من اهداف مهمی دارم.
برام عجیبه که چطور یه نفر میتونه این همه کشته و خسارت رو ببینه و چنین چیزی بگه!
پرسیدم چطور میتونی این همه تلفات جانی رو ببینی و بگی برام اهمیتی نداره؟
سکوت میکنه.
اون یکی میگه: دبستان رو خودشون زدن!
میگم: که مثلا بهانه داشته باشه که ما میتونیم حالا تلافی کنیم؟
-آیا سیستم در پی دستاویز بود؟ اونم در حالی که بهش تجاوز شده؟!
بعد میگه: خب ببین الان چیزی معلوم نیست ما نمیتونیم به حقیقت پی ببریم!
پرسیدم چطور وقتی میشنوی فلان عدد تعداد کشتههاست، شما میگید راسته؟ برای اون آمار نیازی به راستی آزمایی ندارید؟
سکوت میکنه.
یکی دیگه میگه: فلان تیمسار تو صداسیما گفته که پهلوی دستور داده بود تیر جنگی به مردم نزنن. پس قطعا تمام کشتههای انقلاب دروغه!
گفتم که چی شد که این یکی که صداسیما گفته رو قبول داری بقیش رو میگی دروغه؟
میگه چون اون تیمسار مخالفه =))
بهش میگم خب این یعنی من قطبیت دارم. فلذا حرفی رو بدون سند و مدرک باور میکنم و حرفی رو حتی با سند و مدرک هم باشه میگم «نه» مدارک جعلیه.
سکوت میکنه.
و اون یکی پیام داده: خوشحالی؟ (خب دلیل داره این پیامش. چون همیشه دیده بود که من منتقد سرسخت سیستم بودم)
از این پیامش خوشم نیومد. گفتم مگه منو چقدر فرومایه حساب میکنی که از کشته شدن کسی خوشحال بشم هر چند کسی باشه که باهاش مخالفم.
و سکوت میکنه.
به کجا رسیدیم؟
should their plan encompass such tactics:
they're gonna blow up defense capabilities at south-west of Iran to make it easy for ISIS mercenaries to get inside from Iraq border.
they're gonna do the same at north-east for Taliban, and those many Afghans already "settled" in Khorasan are part of the plan to join their military.
those who have infiltrated the borders to operate the recent uprisings and did a lot of damage, again come forth and commit even worse acts and maybe they are accompanied by a number of people from disgruntled and even gray population and capture some areas such as small towns or even military sites and acquire huge amount of military assets.
alongside, the deployed US armed forces continue bombing every place they count as military sites relentlessly.
and surely they assassinate officers and even president and other titles in power and a quite number of hardliners but I'm not sure about the supreme leader.
aside from who will succeed in the war and weather the goals will be achieved, two problems should be addressed before pulling the trigger:
1. how to end this war
2. what will become of Iran in the aftermath
as soon as they come up with plausible plans meeting these problems they will start the war without hesitation.
BUT, will they find solutions? that's the key point everything hinges on.
me?
they can pound Iran like Tyson hitting a cat which I do not see enough to achieve their high goals.
and I like to believe they know that too.
in case of the first problem, my opinion is that they are not on the driver seat so that whenever or wherever they deem enough they can pull over and end the war therefore ending the war is either in the hands of Iranians or "the limited strike" will turn into a war of attrition and no one knows who's gonna raise their hand and give up.
in case of the second problem which is the hardest part for Americans to solve and is the most important part, I think there are some possibilities. 1. Iran turns into the next Syria which except of Israelis none of neighbors are interested in even the US is not interested in because such a ruined country is detrimental to all. middle east will lose security for years and who knows what might happen to oil industry in the region. 2. the US will succeed precisely in regime change with the least casualties and commit the power to the hand of pro-American parties (I do not know of). 3. Iran rises from its ashes like phoenix. and that's the scariest possibility for Iran's enemies.
if Americans have the same thoughts on the second problem as I do, they will never ever start war with Iran, BUT do they?
It's been said that life is like riding a bike, to keep your balance you must keep moving.
Sometimes you find yourself struggling with moving.
It seems the one bad ass task!
Let me tell you a secret:
The bike moves by itself because it is meant to do biologically.
But the hardest thing ever is to get along with it happily.
let's go out for a dinner
I think that restaurant is the best
it serves a wide range of foods to a great number of people everyday
-alright let's go there
there's a rule here that you can only watch the food
you cannot eat it, taste it, smell it or even touch it
what kind of a person are you in your dreams?
more specifically, how do you confront your fears in your dreams? do you confront them at all?
I don't know you but I bet you are more fearless in your dreams than in reality.
have you ever seen some frightening thing in your dream but you didn't flee?
rather you went forward and approached it,
a thing that you would flee from in reality.
have you ever thought about that?
I know there must have been many times you leapt from sleep due to some scary dreams =))
but there must have been some occasions when you did not back off, haven't been?